The Army believes that up to 33 percent of its infrastructure could be excess to its needs by fiscal 2019 when its active-duty end strength drops to 450,000, under a recently completed parametric analysis.

The new analysis updates an earlier estimate concluding that 21 percent of the Army’s capacity would be excess when its end strength shrinks to 450,000. That estimate, however, relied on a facility approach, according to an Army presentation obtained by Politico.

The newer parametric analysis found that the Army’s surplus infrastructure reached 29 percent in FY 2012 before it started to draw down its active forces from a level of 562,000 soldiers.

The Army’s new estimates will be rolled into a DOD-wide parametric analysis of the military’s excess capacity that is expected to be completed shortly. That report, mandated under the FY 2016 defense authorization bill, is expected to bolster the department’s case for holding a new BRAC round. The administration’s latest budget request calls for a new round to be held in 2019.

Last month, Pete Potochney, acting assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations and environment, told the House Military Construction Appropriations Subcommittee that the department’s excess capacity likely hovered at about 20 percent. That figure could change slightly, according to Potochney’s written testimony, as a “DOD-wide parametric analysis” is still underway.

Air Force officials recently have said the service has a surplus infrastructure of 30 percent.